The 2026 Formula 1 season is only three races in, but the grid has already been split into a few very clear groups. Mercedes has won every Grand Prix so far, Kimi Antonelli arrives in Miami leading the Drivers’ Championship on 72 points, George Russell is right behind on 63, and Ferrari is acting as the only challenger so far. McLaren has shown flashes of last year’s glory, while Red Bull continues to struggle.
Miami is the first race after an unexpected break in April caused by the cancellation of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, scheduled for May 3rd with 57 laps and over 5km at the Miami International Autodrome.
The break was welcomed by many teams considering that this year has many new rules along with completely different cars. An extra month is precious for drivers to get used to new batteries, and teams to try to figure out possible strategies and loopholes.
The Miami Grand Prix is crucial after this unscheduled break because it’s going to tell us whether Mercedes has its name already written on the trophies, or whether Ferrari and McLaren are close enough to turn the season into a real fight.
What is the Board Saying?
Expert betting picks and predictions for the F1 season are pretty straightforward. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli sit at 2.40 for the race win, which tells you Mercedes are still the team to beat, while Oscar Piastri is at 10.00, Lando Norris at 12.00, Charles Leclerc at 15.00, Lewis Hamilton at 17.00, and Max Verstappen all the way out at 36.00. In the winning constructor market, Mercedes are a heavy 1.25 favorite, with McLaren at 5.50, Ferrari at 7.50, and Red Bull far down at 26.00, so the strongest Miami pick is still Mercedes, with Russell or Antonelli as probable winners.
For the season long Drivers’ Championship, Russell is priced at 2.00 and Antonelli at 2.10; then there is already a big gap to Leclerc at 15.00, Piastri at 21.00, Norris and Hamilton at 26.00, and Verstappen at 66.00. Right now the market is saying the title is very close between the two Mercedes drivers. The best F1 racing odds are in favor of Mercedes; Russell is the narrow championship favorite, and Antonelli is right there beside him.
Mercedes Built the Early Advantage
Mercedes has been the fastest team overall, and they have had two drivers capable of winning. Russell opened the year by taking Australia, where Mercedes took one two, with Antonelli finishing second. Then Antonelli broke through in China for his first Grand Prix win before adding a second straight victory in Japan after a spectacular recovery from a poor start. These three races put Mercedes at 135 points, well clear of Ferrari at 90 and McLaren at 46.
Miami GP betting markets give a pretty clear picture of where the teams stand. Mercedes AMG Motorsport is priced at 1.25 to win, with McLaren at 5.50, Ferrari at 7.50, and Red Bull all the way out at 26.00. The driver board tells the same story, with George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli both listed at 2.40 for the race win.
So far, Mercedes looks unbeatable. In Australia, Mercedes had outright pace. In China, Antonelli showed composure under pressure and turned pole into victory. In Japan, he proved the first win was not a one off by taking pole and then winning again even though he messed up the start when he fell from first to sixth place.
But the question still remains, who’s the first driver in Mercedes? Russell is more experienced, but Antonelli is Wolff’s golden boy. After the win in Australia, George Russell said that the win had been “a long time coming.” Antonelli, after Japan, kept it calmer and said it was “still early days” but admitted the pace in the second stint was “incredible.” Toto Wolff has tried to cool the title talk, but he also said Mercedes has “a car that is capable of winning” and that both drivers have “equal opportunity.”
Ferrari Is Lurking Just Behind
For starters, Ferrari doesn’t look lost like last year. Through three races, Charles Leclerc has finished third, fourth, and third, while Lewis Hamilton has gone fourth, third, and sixth. They’re not matching Mercedes for wins yet, but they are close enough to capitalize if the silver cars blink. A gap of 47 points might seem like a lot, but in reality we are only at our fourth race this season, and the results could be very different in a few months. Being at the top is still not out of reach for Ferrari, especially if we think about how fast cars are at the start. Not even Mercedes can do anything about it, which we saw in Japan with Antonelli holding the pole and dropping several positions by the first turn.
During the break, Leclerc sounded hopeful when giving statements about the car and the upcoming race. He said, “our time will come” and spoke about the “passion” still being there at Ferrari. And the results show it. Even though Ferrari is not the fastest team, they are clearly in the fight for podiums.
Hamilton’s Ferrari move is still in the headlines two years later. His early run this year has been solid even if it hasn’t exploded into a win yet. Before the year started, he described the 2026 shift as the “biggest regulation shift” of his time and called it a “massive challenge.” So far, he has looked competitive enough to suggest Ferrari can absolutely win races with him. And Miami is just the race where a veteran driver with tire sense and race management can suddenly become very relevant.
McLaren Needs Miami Badly
McLaren came into this season with high expectations from the fans. However, last year’s double champions are starting to lose trust. Norris finished fifth in Australia and fifth in Japan, while Piastri’s second place at Suzuka was easily their best Sunday of the season. The bigger problem is that this is the reigning champion team, and right now they are chasing Mercedes and Ferrari rather than setting the pace.
Andrea Stella more or less warned that this might happen before the season even began, saying McLaren would start 2026 “playing a bit defensively” with Ferrari and Mercedes expected to be quicker. After Australia, he said the team had “work ahead of us,” and this week he explained that the April break gives McLaren time to bring parts that can “make it faster,” especially on the aerodynamic side, while also improving how they exploit the Mercedes power unit. In essence, Stella admitted that the gains are within reach, but the car needs help.
The encouraging bit is Japan. Stella said McLaren “surprised” themselves with their pace there, and Piastri’s second place showed that the team is on the right track. If their work in April is fruitful, Miami is exactly where they could re enter the front row. The less encouraging bit is that they are already almost 90 points behind Mercedes in the constructors’ table. That’s not a disaster yet, but it’s the kind of gap that turns every missed podium into a real problem.
Red Bull Arrives with More Questions Than Answers
Red Bull is the strangest story of the season. The team is not just a little off. They look genuinely uncomfortable with this rules package. Verstappen said before the season that the car was “not much fun to drive” and compared the feel to “Formula E on steroids.” In China he said changes made “zero difference” and called the car “difficult to drive.” In Japan’s practice he said he was not expecting “miracles” after “big problems.” Then after the Suzuka race he told BBC Radio 5 Live he was “beyond frustrated” and questioning his future in the sport. The four time champion sounds exhausted.
The standings are brutal by Red Bull standards. The team is only sixth on 16 points, and Verstappen is nowhere near the front of the title fight. He started the year as the favorite for the championship but had already fallen to seventh favorite because Red Bull had “struggled so far.” To put it lightly. Verstappen is still Verstappen, but the car is not behaving like a winner.
Could Miami help? Maybe a little, if the break gave Red Bull time to clean up balance and deployment issues. But right now hope is not really there. The betting market at Stake.com had Verstappen around 40/1 for Miami, which is almost unbelievable when you remember who he is. The number says the market sees the name and the form as two very different things.
Miami Could Reshuffle the Pack Behind the Leaders
Away from the front, Haas, Alpine, Racing Bulls, Audi, Williams and Cadillac all have something to play for in Miami. Haas is fourth in the constructors’ standings on 18 points, Alpine and Red Bull are tied on 16, Racing Bulls are close behind on 14, and Audi and Williams have at least put something on the board. Cadillac and Aston Martin are still waiting for their first points.
Racing Bulls might be one of the more interesting teams because Alan Permane has already confirmed the team are bringing an upgrade to Miami after the calendar break. He said the canceled races changed the original plan, so Miami becomes the place where a package meant for Bahrain now appears instead. If the update works, Racing Bulls could jump right into the thickest part of the midfield fight.
Audi has had moments, but not much to show for them. Gabriel Bortoleto scored on the team’s debut in Australia, while Nico Hulkenberg has twice finished 11th and said the team has “a lot of work ahead.” Cadillac is still scoreless, but Sergio Perez called Japan their “strongest race so far this year,” and the team page quotes him saying their pace is “getting closer.” Miami probably doesn’t look like a podium race for either one, but for new entries like Audi and Cadillac, finishing races and nicking points would still count as a strong weekend.
Who Has the Ideal Shot in Miami?
Antonelli is no longer the surprise
The rookie shine wore off quickly once he hit 72 points, a first win in China, another in Japan, and a pole at Suzuka. Kimi is the championship leader, and one of the clearest signs that Mercedes made the right choice to put him in the seat at only 18 years old.
China showed he can control a race from the front. Japan showed he can recover after losing the pole. Drivers usually need time to build that kind of range. He already has it in April. Antonelli sounds very calm and collected, not overwhelmed, which is surprising considering that he’s far ahead, and we are only in our fourth race.
Russell is still the safest all around pick
There’s a reason markets are reluctant to push too hard against Russell even with Antonelli leading. Russell looks like a steadier week to week package. He won in Australia, finished second in China, and still came home fourth in Japan after many problems throughout the weekend.
He also has the experience edge that bettors and team bosses tend to care about. Wolff has made it clear that both Mercedes drivers will be treated equally, but when a team says that while one driver has been around since 2019 and the other is in his second season, the message is clear, if the car remains this strong, Russell is built to take a championship.
Who Actually Has the Ideal Chance in Miami?
Mercedes is the obvious answer. They have won every race, they have both championship leaders, and they look well adapted to the new rules.
Russell is the slightly safer pick than Antonelli due to his experience. If you want the strongest driver outside the Mercedes, it’s probably Leclerc first and Piastri second.
Hamilton is the veteran wildcard. Norris is the bounce back candidate. Verstappen is the hardest name to price, because the driver is still elite, but the evidence from the car is grim.
And then, there’s a chance that the standing will get scrambled because someone turns up with enough new parts to move the order by just enough to make strategy and qualifying matter more than pure pace.
Right now the strongest call is still Mercedes over the field, Russell by a hair over Antonelli for the cleanest win case, Ferrari as the nearest threat, McLaren as the team most likely to use the April break well, and Red Bull as the giant name with the worst possible results behind them. That’s a much stranger grid than the one people expected when the year began, and the exact reason why Miami suddenly feels so important.
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